The week ahead in the US market promises to be a whirlwind of activity, with critical job data set to keep investors and analysts busy as they gauge the trajectory of interest rates. Adding to the anticipation are appearances by several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to speak before the National Association for Business Economics in Nashville, Tennessee.
Powell is expected to provide further details on the Fed’s recent half-percentage-point cut to its benchmark interest rate and outline the factors that will influence a projected series of rate reductions extending through the remainder of this year and into 2025.
Leading the job data releases is the Non-Farm Payrolls report for September, which is forecasted by consensus to show an addition of 145,000 jobs. In August, 142,000 jobs were added, an improvement from the revised 89,000 in July, but still below the forecast of 160,000 jobs.
The Unemployment Rate for September is also a key metric, with expectations set at 4.2%. In August, the unemployment rate eased to 4.2% from 4.3% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations.
Another significant labour market indicator, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for August, is forecasted to be around 7.65 million. This comes after job openings fell to 7.673 million in July, marking the lowest level since January 2021 and falling below market forecasts of 8.1 million.
Additional labour-related data to watch include the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Nonfarm Employment Change for September, Average Hourly Earnings for September, Labor Force Participation Rate for September, and weekly Initial Jobless Claims. These data points will collectively provide a comprehensive view of the labour market’s health and its implications for monetary policy.
Beyond labor data, other key economic indicators will be released, including the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for September, with a consensus forecast of 47.6, slightly higher than August’s 47.2. The ISM Services PMI for September is expected to remain at 51.5, the same as in August.
If investors are keen, other data to watch include the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for September, Chicago PMI for September, Factory Orders for August, and Construction Spending for August. These indicators will provide further insights into the state of the manufacturing and construction sectors.
In addition to economic data, several notable companies such as Carnival Corporation (NYSE:CCL), Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE), Paychex Inc (NASDAQ:PAYX), McCormick & Company Inc (NYSE:MKC), and Constellation Brands Inc (NYSE:STZ), are set to report their earnings, which could influence market sentiment.
Given the critical data releases and earnings reports, investors should closely monitor the labour market indicators and Fed communications for clues on future interest rate movements. Additionally, keeping an eye on corporate earnings will be essential for understanding broader market trends and potential investment opportunities.
Disclaimer: ProsperUs Manager of Content Hailey Chung doesn’t own shares of any mentioned companies.
