- October CPI and PPI Reports: CPI is expected to show a slight uptick in annual inflation to 2.6%, while PPI is anticipated to increase the annual rate to 2.3%.
- Federal Reserve Speeches: Insights from Fed officials following the recent 25 basis points rate cut, focusing on future policy outlook.
- Trump Administration Staff Announcements: Market implications of key personnel announcements for Donald Trump’s second term as President.
In the United States, the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the major data point to watch this week, alongside the Producer Price Index (PPI), retail sales, and speeches by Federal Reserve officials following last week’s expected 25 basis points rate cut decision.
1. Economic Data Releases
- CPI: The upcoming CPI report is forecasted to show a slight uptick in the annual inflation rate to 2.6% from September’s 2.4%. The monthly rate is expected to remain steady at 0.2%, with core CPI measures projected to stay unchanged: the annual rate at 3.3% and the monthly rate at 0.3%.
- PPI: A 0.2% increase in the PPI is anticipated after September’s flat reading, which would lift the annual rate to 2.3% from 1.8%. Core PPI is expected to edge up by a slightly stronger 0.3%, raising the annual rate to 2.9% from 2.8%.
- Retail Sales and Industrial Production: Retail sales are projected to rise 0.3%, slightly below September’s 0.4% increase, while industrial production is likely to have contracted by 0.4%.
Other notable releases include the NFIB Business Optimism Index, the monthly budget statement, export and import prices, and business inventories.
2. Federal Reserve Speeches
Traders will closely monitor comments from several Fed officials for additional clues about December’s policy outlook. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did an admirable job of parrying political questions, emphasizing that while interest rates remain very restrictive, the economic data has shown resilience. This suggests that the Fed will adopt a more data-dependent approach in 2025, adjusting policies based on the evolving economic conditions.
3. Trump Administration Announcements
The announcement of key officials for Trump’s second administration in the coming weeks will be a significant factor to monitor from a market perspective. Personnel decisions are crucial under Trump’s leadership, as he relies on staffers for policy specifics and implementation plans.
4. Corporate Earnings
In corporate news, earnings season continues with major companies like Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD), Cisco Systems Inc (NASDAQ:CSCO), AstraZeneca Plc (NASDAQ:AZN), Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS), and Applied Materials Inc (NASDAQ:AMAT) set to release their quarterly results.
This week, the focus will be on new October economic data like the CPI and PPI, insights from Federal Reserve speeches, and significant announcements from Trump’s administration. Market participants will be keenly watching these developments to gauge the economic and policy outlook for the coming months.
Disclaimer: ProsperUs Manager of Content Hailey Chung doesn’t own shares of any mentioned companies.
