- US inflation data and key earnings from Oracle, Adobe, and Broadcom will shape market sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting.
- China’s trade and inflation figures will provide insights into its recovery amid weak domestic demand and ongoing policy measures.
- MIST economies offer a snapshot of regional resilience, with data on trade, exports, and economic stability coming into focus.
As the year-end approaches, global markets are gearing up for a pivotal week that could shape investor sentiment heading into 2025. The spotlight is firmly on the United States, where inflation data and heavyweight earnings will dominate the narrative. Meanwhile, China’s trade and inflation numbers and key updates from Europe and Japan will provide context for global economic trends. Closer to home, the MIST economies—Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand—will deliver a mix of data that offers a snapshot of regional dynamics in Southeast Asia. With central bank decisions, corporate updates, and critical economic indicators all converging, this week promises to be a decisive one for markets worldwide.
United States: All Eyes on Inflation and Earnings
The US dominates the global stage this week, with the November inflation report taking center stage on Wednesday. The data will play a critical role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy stance, just one week ahead of its December meeting. The market expects inflation to remain relatively stable, with year-on-year rates projected at 2.7% in November, a slight increase from 2.6%, and core inflation holding steady at 3.3%. These figures will provide key insights into whether the Fed might maintain its hawkish approach or pivot toward a more accommodative stance in 2024.
On the corporate front, the earnings calendar is packed with market-moving names, including Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL), Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE), and Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO).
Oracle’s cloud and AI strategies have positioned it as a leader in digital transformation, with analysts expecting strong growth momentum. Adobe’s integration of AI across its platforms will be closely watched as it reports midweek. Broadcom’s results on Thursday are particularly anticipated, as the semiconductor giant continues to ride the wave of AI-driven demand, with projected AI revenue of over $12 billion in fiscal 2024.
Additional economic releases, such as the Producer Price Index (PPI), jobless claims, and the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, will round out a busy week, offering further insights into the health of the US economy.
China: Trade and Inflation Take Center Stage
China’s economic data will be under the spotlight, with inflation and trade figures scheduled for release early in the week. November’s inflation is expected to come in at just 0.3% year-on-year, underscoring weak domestic demand despite Beijing’s ongoing policy measures. On Tuesday, trade data will reveal the health of external demand, with exports forecast to grow 10% and imports rebounding by 3.6%. These metrics will provide a clearer picture of China’s recovery trajectory as it navigates a challenging global environment.
Europe Expected to Cut Rate but Uncertainties Lie Ahead
In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB)’s interest rate decision on Thursday will be a focal point, with the deposit facility rate expected to cut by 25 basis points (bps). For now the ECB is unlikely to react to heightened political turmoil in Europe where the French government collapsed. US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, and whether they trigger a wider trade war, raised further questions for ECB policy next year. It will be interesting to keep an eye on ECB’s President Lagarde’s subsequent commentary.
MIST Economies: Regional Resilience Amid Global Challenges
The MIST economies—Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand—are set to release key data this week, offering insights into regional economic trends. Malaysia will report steady unemployment and industrial production growth, reflecting resilience in exports and domestic demand. Indonesia’s trade data is expected to highlight robust export growth driven by commodities, while retail sales point to healthy consumption. Singapore’s non-oil exports may decline, but Treasury bill auctions will gauge liquidity amid high rates. In Thailand, consumer confidence and forex reserves will provide a snapshot of economic stability, with tourism and agriculture remaining pivotal sectors.
This week’s lineup of data and events underscores the critical interplay between major global economies and emerging markets, but the US remains the focal point as its inflation and earnings reports set the stage for broader market trends. Investors worldwide will be closely watching for signals from the Federal Reserve and insights into the health of corporate America to navigate the final trading weeks of the year.
Disclaimer: ProsperUs Head of Content & Investment Lead Billy Toh doesn’t own shares of any companies mentioned.
