Trump vs. Harris: How to Invest with the US Election Uncertainty
November 5, 2024
- A Trump win could boost infrastructure, industrial, and energy stocks like Jacobs Solutions and Occidental Petroleum Corporation.
- A Harris victory may favor tech, healthcare, and real estate sectors, benefiting stocks such as NVIDIA Corporation and HCA Healthcare, Inc.
- Diversifying into resilient tech and consumer sectors, like Microsoft Corporation and Amazon.com, Inc., could be a safe strategy regardless of the election outcome.
Today is E-Day—Election Day in the United States. As millions of Americans cast their votes, the entire world watches to see whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will emerge as the next US president. For investors, this day is more than just a political event; it is a pivotal moment that could reshape the financial landscape. Both candidates bring distinct agendas, with Trump favoring sectors like infrastructure and energy, while Harris leans towards tech and healthcare. This creates unique opportunities—and risks—for those prepared to act.
In this article, we will break down which sectors and stocks are poised to benefit most from either a Trump or Harris win. We will also include stock codes for your convenience, so you can quickly add potential winners to your watchlist. Buckle up as we explore the high-stakes world of election-driven investing!
If Trump Wins: Look to Infrastructure and Industrial Plays
If Trump clinches the victory, his agenda will likely continue to prioritize infrastructure and industrial growth. This scenario generally favors construction, engineering, and transportation sectors, which historically outperform the S&P500 under Republican administrations.
- Construction & Engineering: Under Trump, infrastructure spending could boost companies specializing in construction and engineering, such as Jacobs Solutions Inc. (NYSE: J) and United Rentals, Inc. (NYSE: URI). These stocks are well-positioned to benefit from increased federal support for large-scale projects.
- Ground Transportation: A pro-business Trump administration may lift restrictions and encourage growth in ground transportation sectors. Stocks like FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) and Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE: UNP) are worth watching as potential beneficiaries of these policies.
- Energy: Trump’s stance on deregulation and fossil fuels favors the energy sector, especially traditional oil and gas companies. Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) and Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL) could see significant gains with a Trump win.
If Harris Wins: Tech, Healthcare, and Real Estate in the Spotlight
A Harris victory could lead to a different economic landscape, with a focus on technology, healthcare access, and climate-conscious infrastructure development. Harris’s policies are likely to benefit sectors such as technology, healthcare facilities, and real estate.
- Semiconductors: A Democratic win often supports tech-heavy sectors, and semiconductors could see a boost, especially if Harris backs policies favoring advanced tech production. Keep an eye on NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC), which could both benefit under her leadership.
- Healthcare Facilities: With Harris’s focus on expanding healthcare, companies in this sector could perform well. Look at HCA Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE: HCA) and Tenet Healthcare Corporation (NYSE: THC) for potential investment opportunities.
- Real Estate Development: Harris’s administration may prioritize affordable housing and infrastructure, which would benefit companies in real estate management and development, such as Prologis, Inc. (NYSE: PLD) and Equinix, Inc. (NASDAQ: EQIX).
Hedging Your Bets: Diversify to Win No Matter Who Takes Office
A balanced approach could be your safest strategy if you’re unsure of the election outcome. Consider investing in diversified sectors that could benefit under either administration:
- Tech Giants: Companies like Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) have proven resilience and could see gains regardless of political changes.
- Consumer Discretionary: Retailers like Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) are likely to remain strong as consumer spending adapts to the new economy.
The 2024 election is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable yet. By preparing your portfolio with stocks that align with each candidate’s potential policy shifts, you can position yourself to profit regardless of who claims victory.
Disclaimer: ProsperUs Head of Content & Investment Lead Billy Toh doesn’t own shares of any companies mentioned.
Billy Toh
Billy is deeply committed to making investment accessible and understandable to everyone, a principle that drives his engagement with the capital markets and his long-term investment strategies. He is currently the Head of Content & Investment Lead for Prosperus and a SGX Academy Trainer. His extensive experience spans roles as an economist at RHB Investment Bank, focusing on the Thailand and Philippines markets, and as a financial journalist at The Edge Malaysia. Additionally, his background includes valuable time spent in an asset management firm. Outside of finance, Billy enjoys meaningful conversations over coffee, keeps fit as a fitness enthusiast, and has a keen interest in technology.